The CHANCES Consortium for Natural Hazard Risk 🇬🇧

Climate change is upending the insurance market in many places with increased flooding and fire hazards. As a result, in states such as Florida and California many big firms have stopped writing homeowners’ insurance. Don’t blame the risk modelers. They have large, sophisticated models of most hazards. The problems occur when the results of these models are provided as single number averages. Now a consortium among Aon, Pew Trust, GFOA ProbabilityManagement.org has develop a proven approach to convey Natural Hazard risk as Stochastic Data along with Crucial Spatial Correlations. This is a work in progress in which we are seeking participants to help us establish world-wide standards to improve the communication of this vital form of risk.

See https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/natural-hazards

• See how Chancification delivered hazard data from a large insurance firm to native Excel
• Learn what Spatial Correlation is in natural hazard risk
• The Flaw of Averages with Spatial Correlations
• See why Spatial Correlations require so much data
• Discover how new algorithms can reduce this by factors of thousands, making natural hazard risk much easier to convey.